The Dangers of Voters Who Don’t Believe Trump
In the run up the Iraq War, I had a conversation with my Mother that comes back to me now, in the era of Donald Trump. I was deeply opposed to the war, and unconvinced that there was moral justification for it. She was equally convinced that President Bush and his friends had information that they just weren’t telling us…especially about things like “Weapons of Mass Destruction.”
“I just think they know things they can’t tell us,” she told me.
This was a very common belief at the time. And so I hope you understand, I am not bagging on my Mother. I am using this example conversation to remind you that this was an incredibly common belief, shared by Democrats and Republicans at the time; and, according to polls, by the vast majority of Americans.
It turned out to be dead wrong. There were no WMD. The long scope of history showed how my own view (and given the massive loss of human treasure the war took on all sides, I am not proud to say this) turned out to be right.
What the American public and the broad West failed to account for was simple game theory:
A dictator -one who rules by fear and the illusion of superior power- was NEVER going to allow for WMD inspections, nor were they going to confess they had no WMD. And so, to observers in the West, angry, frustrated and still reeling with the PTSD of 911, he looked like he was hiding something. We chose not to believe him, even though he was telling the truth.
Misunderstanding this last truth about Saddam was a “game theory” failure of the West, and especially thought leaders (Left and Right) in our country. They assumed, foolishly, that Saddam Hussein would act like the rational leader of a democratic republic, and just confess to the fact he had no weapons.
OR…let’s allow for the more sinister view: Our leaders knew he didn’t have WMD, going in, and they used his intransigence as the ruse for the war…knowing that the American public wouldn’t believe a dictator could tell the truth.
The difference matters. But only on the surface level.
The point is: There was no moral justification, either way.
And either way this is my point: Thought leaders at the time chose to believe OUR government, without solid evidence. Thought leaders at the time chose to disbelieve Hussein, when he was actually telling the truth.
And this a great time to remind you about Malcom Gladwell’s great book, “ Talking to Strangers;” which, several years after it was published, I still talk about all the time.
The book reminds us of two things:
1. We are very bad at reading other people…especially those who are different from us.
2. We are very GOOD at “defaulting to truth,” with those who we want to believe…like a President, telling us our enemy has WMD. Instead of believing the evidence that they are lying, we do the very human thing (ironically, the thing that makes society possible) we “default to truth” and believe them.
Eventually George W Bush put out a comical Christmas video, about how they were “looking for WMD” under the beds and tables of the White House.
“Nope…none there…”
What an insult that was to all the war dead on both sides.
I personally believe the Iraq War didn’t just result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent combatants and civilians, but I also believe it also unleashed a harshness that is still loose in our nation today. An entire generation saw its idealism crushed by that war, and we all still suffer from the distrust and lies we learned to tolerate in the wake of that trauma.
And it was just the start of many other times when our government, our business community, lied to us, shamelessly.
The public trusted doctors, nurses, pharma companies, and congress…when they told us “You can take as many of these pills as you want, and not get addicted.”
That wasn’t true, but we chose to believe them.
Because it was too hard to believe they would lie about how addicted we would become.
The public trusted mortgage lenders, banks, and government once again, when they said, “You can afford this mortgage…and if you get in trouble, the loans will be guaranteed…”
And we chose to believe them.
Because it was too hard to believe they would lie to us about losing our homes.
Time and again, the American public “defaults to truth” in the midst of evidence to the contrary. Please hear me: We are not defective when we do this. Having in innate trust in others is what makes human society possible. Trusting others and their previous decisions happens from the moment you wake, every single morning.
We cannot “trust but verify” every single thing. We just “trust” most things…and that’s a beautiful part of what it means to be human. It’s also the very thing that liars can exploit.
Which gets me to Donald Trump.
Everyone, including Donald Trump’s own supporters, know that he is a chronic liar.
We all on both sides of the aisle, understand this.
The difference is:
Progressives believe he WILL do some of the crazy things he says he will.
Conservatives believe he will not.
I’m writing all this this morning because of a new New York Times piece titled:
“The Trump Voters Who Don’t Believe Trump: When the former president endorses violence and proposes using the government to attack his enemies, many of his supporters assume it’s just an act.”
If you have a NYT subscription, I invite you to read it.
The piece starts this way:
“One of the more peculiar aspects of Donald J. Trump’s political appeal is this: A lot of people are happy to vote for him because they simply do not believe he will do many of the things he says he will.The former president has talked about weaponizing the Justice Department and jailing political opponents. He has said he would purge the government of non-loyalists and that he would have trouble hiring anyone who admits that the 2020 election wasn’t stolen. He proposed “one really violent day” in which police officers could get “extraordinarily rough” with impunity. He has promised mass deportations and predicted it would be “a bloody story.” And while many of his supporters thrill at such talk, there are plenty of others who figure it’s all just part of some big act.”
“I just think they know things they can’t tell us,” my Mom said in 2003.
She just could not believe that either her government was lying to her, or bluffing…just as Saddam was to us.
And today, scores of voters say this about Trump.
“Yeah, I know he says these things, but I just don’t believe him.”
There is so much evidence out there that Donald Trump does say what he means that I’m not going to belabor it here.
He did try a Muslim ban.
He did put kids in cages.
He did foment an insurrection.
And now, even though his core supporters have put out “Project 2025,” apparently a vast number of his rank and file voters just don’t believe he’ll do any of it.
Look, I’m on the broad political left. So I get that if you’re a conservative voter and have read this far, you probably think I’m overblowing all of this.
But I’d ask you consider how his former Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, has called Trump “Fascist to the core…”
Maybe you also recall how Milley allowed himself to be duped into participating in the “Bible Photo-Op” where Trump demanded the military clear a White House adjacent park with tear gas, so he could hold up a Bible in front of a church. (I’m posting a photo of Trump walking out to the park, flanked by Milley in fatigues)
Milley later apologized for taking part in this. And, as I just noted, he now believes Trump is a fascist.
Meanwhile, millions of you Trump voters apparently don’t believe him when Trump says he will use the military to…
deport millions of immigrants…
invade Mexico to deal with cartels…
invade American cities to deal with homelessness or crime…
mobilize the military against lawful protestors…
I guess you just think he’s lying? Maybe like the opiod and mortgage crisis, it’s just too much to believe he’ll do what he says?
I understand, given the long history of our being lied to about wars, pharmaceuticals, mortgages and so much more…I understand you just want to believe in SOMETHING.
But, please dear voters, don’t believe in this.
He DOES mean what he says. Milley is right.
There is evidence of it.
He is fascist to the core. And like fascists everywhere, they come to power with the consent of their own people.
And if you intend to vote for Trump, YOU are those people.
Our democracy cannot afford you failing to believe he will do exactly what he says.
“Default to truth” about many things in your life, but don’t do it with respect to Donald Trump.
Our democracy cannot afford it.
Originally published at http://wheneftalks.com on October 15, 2024.
